Impending Clash Between Trump Administration, Congress, and South Africa Over Support for Russia and U.S. Adversaries

South Africa has participated in military exercises alongside Russia's naval and air forces, granting the Kremlin access to its naval bases, including the docking of Russia's sanctioned warships. Additionally, senior South African military officials have undergone training in Moscow. At the United Nations, South Africa has consistently declined to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Prominent Republicans are urging the incoming Trump administration to reconsider South Africa's inclusion in key trade agreements unless the country revises its stance on Russia, China, Iran, and Israel.

At stake are South Africa's duty-free exports to the U.S. under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which covers goods like cars and citrus fruit. Losing this preferential access could jeopardize tens of thousands of African jobs. The incoming administration is expected to scrutinize South Africa closely.

A 2023 publication by the Center for African Studies at Howard University cautioned that countries benefiting from AGOA's preferential trade terms "must not act in ways that undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests."

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South Africa’s ruling ANC party has engaged with Hamas, with one regional branch recently endorsing a local Muslim leader who reportedly declared to an enthusiastic crowd, "I am Hamas, Cape Town is Hamas, Viva Hamas!" Additionally, the government condemned the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh earlier this year. South Africa’s Foreign Minister, Ronald Lamola, described the killing as an "assassination," asserting that such acts of extrajudicial killings violate international law.

At the International Court of Justice, South Africa has accused Israel of committing genocide.

China, South Africa's largest trading partner, shares membership in the BRICS trade bloc with South Africa. The country has also supported the recent inclusion of Iran in BRICS, raising concerns about alleged deep ties between Tehran and Pretoria.

South Africa’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its aggressive pursuit of Israel and its leaders in international courts signal a departure from American positions on key issues," J. Brooks Spector told hawk News Digital.

Spector, a former U.S. diplomat now based in Johannesburg and deputy editor of the respected Daily Maverick, further stated, "South Africa’s ongoing actions and rhetoric against Israel in international court efforts will likely bolster Republican efforts in Congress—and possibly within the administration—to revoke South Africa’s benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, assuming the act is renewed next year.

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"These actions by the South African government could also prompt efforts to reduce support for critical initiatives like PEPFAR—the aid program that, alongside the Global Fund and local organizations, has played a pivotal role in South Africa's successful fight against HIV and AIDS."

Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, expressed his concerns to hawk news Digital, stating, "I remain deeply troubled by South Africa’s growing alignment with Russia, China, and Iran, including Iran’s terror proxies, and the implications for U.S. national security—a key factor in AGOA eligibility. South Africa’s foreign policy decisions will continue to be a focus of my oversight efforts."Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., a ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa and the Senate Finance Committee, sharply criticized South Africa in 2023, stating, "South Africa has harbored sanctioned Russian ships, strengthened ties with Iran, and issued statements opposing Israel’s right to defend itself following recent Hamas terror attacks."

Both Scott and Sen. Jim Risch are expected to wield greater influence as President-elect Trump assumes office in January. Scott’s office told hawk News Digital, "Sen. Scott looks forward to collaborating with the Trump administration to ensure AGOA participants align with U.S. national security interests." South Africa’s foreign policy decisions are under intense scrutiny in Washington.

Richard Goldberg, a former National Security Council member and senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, expressed particular concern over potential ties between South Africa and Iran. Speaking to hawk News Digital, Goldberg said, "The first step is to publicly build the case and give South Africa one final chance to choose. We should declassify intelligence on South Africa’s deep relationship with Iran and any support for terrorist groups." He added, "We must leverage all diplomatic and economic tools to compel Pretoria to choose between the United States and our terrorist adversaries. AGOA should be one of several policy levers."

South Africa’s Department of International Relations did not respond to multiple requests for comment. However, Matthew Parks, the Parliamentary Coordinator for the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), emphasized the importance of U.S.-South Africa relations. "We are confident that our relations with the U.S. will continue to grow, including through AGOA, because it benefits both nations," Parks told Fox News Digital. He noted extensive engagement with U.S. labor groups, businesses, Congress, and government agencies to strengthen ties and renew AGOA.

Meanwhile, Ebrahim Rasool, South Africa’s ambassador to the U.S., who begins his second term as Trump enters the White House, addressed South Africa’s stance at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel. Speaking to the Daily Maverick, Rasool urged restraint in public discourse, saying, "We will stand by the case, but let us now trust our legal team, the evidence we’ve presented, and the judges of the ICJ to deliver a just and sustainable solution. It is time to put away the megaphone."

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Rassool emphasized that South African oranges exported to the U.S. under AGOA allow Americans to enjoy orange juice year-round, even when Florida and California oranges are out of season. He also pointed out, "Why would you want to burden America with expensive cars when South African BMWs are much cheaper than those from Germany or manufacturing them domestically?"

Additionally, he highlighted that American cancer patients rely on medical nuclear isotopes from South Africa. Expelling South Africa from AGOA would be "disastrous," according to Renai Moothilal, CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component & Allied Manufacturers. In an article for Business Day, Moothilal warned, "It will be no surprise if some component manufacturers shut down. U.S.-based multinational manufacturers with plants here may leave South Africa if there are volume losses linked to our exclusion from AGOA or if political pressures are applied."

Observers note that President-elect Trump has made loud threats, including a claim that he will impose a 100% import tariff on countries like South Africa if, as members of BRICS, they adopt a new currency to challenge the dollar. In contrast, South African politicians are adopting a more cautious tone. The Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa's main opposition party, is part of the government of national unity, working alongside President Ramaphosa's ANC in a sometimes contentious coalition. Emma Powell, the DA’s national spokesperson for foreign affairs, told Fox News Digital that the relationship between Pretoria and Washington is likely to become more transactional, with a greater focus on equitable reciprocity. "This would contrast with the Biden administration’s emphasis on beneficiation-based investment and development," Powell added. "There will also likely be less tolerance for actions by the South African government that could be seen as undermining U.S. national security interests." She further noted that the Trump administration would likely take a more cautious approach regarding AGOA eligibility.

J. Brooks Spector told Fox News Digital that one potential positive takeaway could be, The incoming U.S. president’s frequent support for transactional foreign economic policies may encourage African nations—led by South Africa—to unite and offer trade and market concessions to the U.S.