Major Update Issued for 2025 Hurricanes Southeast

 Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team now project 16 named storms for the remainder of the year — a slight decrease from their original forecast of 17, and just modestly above the seasonal average of a little over 14.

Ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic remain slightly warmer than average, although still cooler than last year's record highs. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are hovering near average, supporting a “neutral” phase—meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present.

According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, when neutral conditions in the Pacific combine with warmer Atlantic waters, it often creates an environment more conducive to tropical storm development. His team estimates a 48% chance of a hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline this year — a few points above the historical average of 43% for this time of year. That includes a 25% chance along the Eastern Seaboard and a 31% chance along the Gulf Coast, both slightly above average.

They also project a 53% likelihood of a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) passing through the Caribbean, surpassing the typical historical probability of 47%.“We’re expecting a slightly above-average chance for major hurricanes to make landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean,” said Dr. Phil Klotzbach. “But as with any hurricane season, it’s important to remember that it only takes one storm hitting land to make the season impactful.”

Even storms that fall short of major hurricane status can still cause significant damage. Over the weekend, Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in the Carolinas as a relatively weak system, yet it brought heavy flooding to central North Carolina and tragically resulted in one fatality.

“Regardless of the forecast, it’s crucial to make thorough preparations every season,” Klotzbach emphasized.