A Plot in the Maldives and India’s Struggle for Regional Power
India, South Asia's largest nation, has long sought to maintain regional influence by supporting reliable allies like Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh and the Congress Party in Nepal. However, experts warn that this approach is fraught with potential pitfalls.
Nilanthi Samaranayake, a researcher at the East-West Center in Washington, underscores that India’s reliance on cultivating close, personal relationships with smaller South Asian nations often breeds resentment. “The opposition and the public remember the issues,” she explains, indicating that such tactics can backfire over time.
A notable case is the Maldives, where relations with India took a sharp downturn following Mohamed Muizzu’s election as president in late 2023. Reports suggest that India, along with its intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), swiftly began strategizing ways to counter Muizzu’s administration.
Muizzu exacerbated tensions by vowing to expel Indian troops from the Maldives and signaling a strategic pivot toward China, India’s primary regional competitor. He also hinted at the possibility of a military assistance agreement with Beijing, further straining ties with New Delhi.
By January 2024, Indian intelligence officials reportedly engaged with Maldivian opposition figures to explore options for removing Muizzu from power, according to sources cited by The Washington Post.
A storyline emerges.
An internal document titled “Democratic Renewal Initiative,” obtained by The Washington Post, revealed a detailed strategy to impeach Muizzu. The plan involved bribing 40 members of parliament, including some from Muizzu’s own party, as well as paying off senior security officials and criminal gangs. The estimated cost of the operation was $6 million (87 million Maldivian rufiyaa), reportedly to be sourced from India.
However, after months of covert negotiations, the conspirators failed to secure sufficient parliamentary support. Indian authorities, concerned about the potential destabilization of the Maldives, ultimately decided against funding or advancing the impeachment effort.
India vs. China: A Wider Battle for Power
The Maldivian situation highlights the ongoing rivalry between India and China for influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Both countries have utilized loans, infrastructure projects, and political alliances to establish strategic positions. For India, ensuring stability in neighboring countries like the Maldives is a key element of its foreign policy.
With its 1,200 islands located along critical shipping routes, the Maldives has long held strategic importance. Indian officials are concerned that Chinese investments could potentially lead to the establishment of military bases, giving Beijing considerable control over the Indian Ocean.
Historical rivalries
The rivalry has grown more intense in recent years, especially between the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), supported by India, and the pro-China faction led by former President Abdulla Yameen and his ally Muizzu. During Yameen's presidency from 2013 to 2018, China established a significant presence in the Maldives, investing heavily in infrastructure, including a $200 million bridge linking the capital, Male, to the airport.
In response, India strengthened its ties with the MDP, led by Mohamed Nasheed, an Oxford-educated activist. With India's backing, Nasheed played a pivotal role in facilitating the election of his cousin-in-law, Ibrahim Solih, as president in 2018. Solih adopted an "India First" policy, allowing Indian military presence and securing more than $1 billion in financial aid from India.
Solih's pro-India approach sparked strong opposition, giving rise to the "India Out" movement, initially led by Yameen and later by Muizzu.
The 2023 elections and fallout
Muizzu's campaign leveraged strong anti-Indian sentiments, ultimately defeating Solih in the 2023 elections. In his victory speech, he emphasized his commitment to expelling foreign military forces, setting the stage for strained relations with India.
By January 2024, discussions of impeaching Muizzu gained momentum. Key figures in this movement included Hussain Shaheem, an MDP lawmaker allegedly connected to India's intelligence agency RAW, and Ahmed Easa, a long-time ally of India. Despite attempts to galvanize opposition support, the impeachment effort faltered due to a lack of parliamentary backing and financial obstacles.
In response, Muizzu secured his position by bribing 11 opposition lawmakers, flipping their allegiance. Publicly, he intensified his anti-India rhetoric, declaring, “We may be small, but that doesn’t give you the license to bully us.”
India's response
India, renowned for its proactive regional policies, adjusted its strategy following Muizzu’s consolidation of power. Acknowledging the Maldives’ severe economic challenges, India postponed $100 million in debt repayments and provided additional financial support. These measures stood in stark contrast to China’s less flexible approach, as the Maldives struggled with an $8 billion debt load.
By October, Muizzu made a diplomatic visit to India, signaling a shift in relations. He described India as a “valued partner” and expressed appreciation for the economic aid, including a $700 million currency swap. India reaffirmed its commitment to the Maldives through joint military projects and infrastructure development initiatives.
Lessons in regional diplomacy
The political instability in the Maldives highlights a larger challenge for India’s foreign policy. While India aims to foster pro-India leadership throughout South Asia, its interventions often stir local resentment. Experts caution that such actions can backfire, alienating the public and strengthening opposition forces.
For President Muizzu, economic realities have prompted a pragmatic shift in his stance toward India. Despite his earlier antagonism, he has come to recognize India's pivotal role in stabilizing the Maldivian economy.
As the Maldives finds itself at a geopolitical crossroads, the rivalry between India and China for influence continues. At present, economic factors have fostered a fragile peace between India and the Maldives, but the underlying power dynamics remain unpredictable.
Source: Washington Post
