Trump strikes strategic setback against Iranian regime through Azerbaijan-Armenia pact

 Trade Corridor Deal Delivers Major Setback to Tehran’s Regime

Trump’s South Caucasus Deal Reshapes Regional Power Balance, Weakens Tehran

President Donald Trump’s new agreement in the South Caucasus has ended a decades-long conflict while securing Washington a rare strategic foothold on Iran’s northern border, according to regional experts.

The deal, signed earlier this month between Armenia and Azerbaijan, grants the U.S. a 99-year lease over the Zangezur Corridor — a narrow strip of land set to become a vital trade and energy route to Europe, bypassing Tehran entirely. Iranian American journalist and dissident Banafsheh Zand told Fox News Digital the move is “a wonderful gain for the U.S.” and a sharp rebuke to Iran’s ruling regime.

For decades, the Zangezur Corridor lay at the heart of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which displaced tens of thousands and fueled instability across the region. Trump’s intervention not only brought both sides to the table but also created what observers describe as a new trade and security lifeline linking the Caspian Basin to Europe — without reliance on Iran.

Branded the Trump Route for Peace & Prosperity (TRIPP), the agreement gives Washington direct oversight of the corridor’s railways, highways, telecom networks, and energy pipelines. This places U.S. firms in a dominant position over Caspian oil, gas, and goods bound for Europe, generating billions in future trade and investment. It also locks Europe into alternative supply lines, reducing dependence on both Russia and Iran.

For America’s allies, the corridor promises cheaper and more secure access to Caspian energy. For Tehran, it marks a strategic loss — undercutting revenues, weakening leverage, and stripping its role as a compulsory gatekeeper for east-west commerce.

Zand called the deal both historic and a direct win for Washington. “American contractors will be supervising oil and gas from the Caspian Basin, routed through Zangezur and Turkey to Europe. The profit margins are great, and it all happens under NATO’s blessing,” she said.

Looking ahead, Zand suggested the deal’s implications could go even further. “Nobody’s talking about it yet, but I don’t think it’s out of the question to see U.S. bases there,” she added. “If that happens, then checkmate the Khamenei regime and Russia.”

For Tehran, the corridor amounts to what Zand described as a nightmare scenario. For decades, Iran has leveraged its geography to dominate regional energy and trade routes. The new agreement, by bringing the U.S. directly into the Caucasus, strips away much of that influence.

“Iran is shaped like a cat, a sitting cat,” Zand said. “This corridor literally runs above the cat’s ears. It bypasses Iran, takes money away from the regime, and pushes them out into the cold.”

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program, said the deal underscores Iran’s growing vulnerabilities in the Caucasus. “The defeat of Armenia in its most recent war with Azerbaijan, combined with today’s political rift between Moscow and Yerevan, has made it far harder for the Islamic Republic to benefit from its traditional relationship with Armenia,” he told Fox News Digital. “The ties remain, and the regime is opportunistic as well as ideological. If there is a way to throw stones at this deal or extract concessions later, they will try.”

Still, he noted, the strategic reality is unmistakable. “The Islamic Republic is, in essence, carved out of this route,” he said. “This is not just a critical corridor that could bring stability to the South Caucasus and economic gains for the countries involved — it highlights how poorly the regime has safeguarded Iran’s national interests. The state has been excluded from a major transit lifeline just beyond its own border.”

Zand argued that timing has magnified the corridor’s impact. She pointed to Iran’s declining position since October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent 12-day war with Tehran. “The regime was self-isolated when it couldn’t come to Hamas’s or Hezbollah’s rescue. Iraq’s Shiites are saying they don’t want to be controlled, Syria is out, and Hezbollah has been degraded. For those of us who’ve watched the regime for decades, we always knew it was a paper tiger. October 7 and the war exposed it to the world.”

The assassinations of senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists, she added, have only deepened the sense of fragility inside Tehran. “They can huff and puff about blowing the house down, but the truth is, there’s a whole lot of fear among the regime’s leaders now,” Zand said. “Khamenei has even gone into hiding again.”

Ben Taleblu noted that Washington is capitalizing on these vulnerabilities. “Wherever the regime is weak, that invites pushback — militarily or economically,” he said. “The U.S. has followed Israel’s military success against the Islamic Republic with strikes of its own against nuclear facilities, and now it is following Azerbaijan’s battlefield success with a political and economic win. This corridor is another example of America stepping in at Tehran’s most vulnerable moment.”

For Zand, whose father — journalist and intellectual Ahmad Zand — was assassinated by the regime, Trump’s personal involvement was decisive. “Because it’s Trump, it makes all the difference,” she said. “Trump doesn’t care about not hurting people’s feelings. He responds to how people act. And with this move, he’s sitting over Iran like a vulture — ominous, watching, ready.”

To dissidents like Zand, the corridor represents far more than infrastructure. “We’ve prayed for this for decades,” she said. “Until the regime is gone, people inside Iran will remain too afraid to rise up again. But this corridor is a boon. It shows the regime is surrounded, and its days are numbered.”

Backed by NATO, the deal has already drawn comparisons to historic peace accords. But Zand believes its true significance lies in making America’s role in the Caucasus permanent. “The regime knows the jig is up,” she said.