Euroviews: Achieving Peace in Ukraine Requires More Than Just a Plan

If Europe Wants a Voice in Security, It Needs a Robust Peace Plan for Ukraine

To secure a seat at the table on European security matters rather than merely being its subject, Europe must formulate its own European Peace Plan — one that combines forceful diplomacy with the tangible backing of arms and financial resources, argue Nicu Popescu and Gustav Gressel.

As the Trump administration prepares an effort to broker peace in Ukraine, Europe worries — justifiably so — that it may be sidelined in the decision-making process. Worse still, Europe fears a deal struck at the expense of not only Ukraine but also its own security interests.

No amount of diplomatic pleading will change that unless Europe offers a substantial contribution of its own: a European Peace Plan to complement and safeguard any external initiatives, including Trump’s.

Modest Prospects for Peace

The odds of achieving a peace agreement in the near term remain slim. As long as Russia continues to make territorial gains, it has little incentive to negotiate a deal that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and freedom of action.

Indeed, many "proposals" risk reducing Ukraine to a vassal state akin to Belarus, creating even greater security challenges for Europe. For Moscow, so long as the battlefield remains favorable, there is little reason to concede in negotiations what can be won through continued aggression.

What Can Europe Do?

The path to peace requires deliberate preparation and strategic milestones. Europe must chart this course carefully:

1. Halting Russian Advances
   The first step is to stop Russia’s military progress, which requires bolstering Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. Current levels of military aid are insufficient. Europe must increase military support, ensuring Ukraine can hold the line against further Russian incursions.

2. Long-Term Commitments
   Russia must be disabused of any hope for renewed offensives after adapting to Ukraine's enhanced capabilities. This requires Europe to commit credibly to long-term support for Ukraine’s defense, making aid resilient to political shifts within the EU.

   Europe should establish binding contracts with defense industries in both Europe and Ukraine to scale up the production of essential military supplies. A dedicated financial framework, akin to the European Peace Facility, should ensure uninterrupted funding, avoiding repeated political debates every few months.

   
   
   

Establishing a European Peace Fund

Financing these efforts is critical. A European Peace Fund — modeled after the US lend-lease program during World War II — could serve as Europe’s primary financial contribution. Drawing inspiration from the €800 billion post-COVID recovery fund, this initiative could pool resources from cohesion funds, NextGenEU, development bank capacities, and new loans.

This fund should not only enhance EU defense production and infrastructure but also allocate 20% directly to Ukraine’s defense. Long-term repayment structures, spanning 50 to 100 years, would mirror historical precedents, such as the UK's repayment of US lend-lease debt, which concluded in 2006.

Beyond Paper Guarantees

Paper-based security assurances are no longer credible, especially following the failure of the US and UK to uphold the Budapest Memorandum. For Ukraine to trust any truce, Europe must propose robust guarantees against future large-scale attacks.

While NATO membership is the most reliable assurance, the ratification process may take time, as Sweden’s recent experience has shown. In the interim, Europe must consider deploying forces to Ukraine to create a credible deterrent.

Troop Deployments: A Necessary Discussion

A military presence in Ukraine — whether peacekeepers or troops without peacekeeping status — could offer stability. However, history demonstrates the limitations of traditional peacekeeping missions, particularly under mandates that can be vetoed or terminated by Russia.

Instead, Europe should explore an autonomous military presence modeled after NATO’s enhanced forward presence. This would not only bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities but also send a strong signal of Europe’s commitment to long-term stability.

A Tall Order, but a Necessary One

This comprehensive package — arms, defense funds, long-term financial aid, and military deployment — may seem ambitious. Yet, if Europe hopes to shape its own security future and avoid a deal that paves the way for Russia’s next war, it has little choice.

Forceful diplomacy, supported by military and financial strength, is essential for Europe to transition from being a passive observer to an active shaper of its security landscape.

Nicu Popescu is a distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and a former foreign minister of Moldova. Gustav Gressel is a security and defense expert.